The holiday season has officially begun, but this year’s activity looks different from years past. PwC projects overall holiday spend to come in about 5% below 2024 levels. That dip doesn’t reflect softness; it reflects strategy. Consumers are still showing up, they’re just doing it differently, planning ahead, watching prices, and spreading purchases across a longer window. They’re not skipping the season; they’re stretching it.
That behavior is already visible in the data. Across ADM’s traditional DTC clients, performance through October 30 shows clear signs of more deliberate, drawn-out shopping habits. On Google, conversion volume rose 52% year over year, conversion rate improved 35%, and CPA declined 26%. Meta followed suit, with CPMs down 7%, CTR up 40%, and CPA down 14%.
These early indicators suggest that shoppers aren’t waiting for Cyber Week to begin browsing and buying. They’re actively deal-hunting earlier in the season, likely influenced by broader economic pressures like rising costs tied to tariffs and uncertainty around fiscal policy.
A Slower Market Doesn’t Mean Shoppers Aren’t Paying Attention
That recalibrated mindset is showing up across the industry. A third of U.S. adults say prices feel noticeably higher due to tariffs and shipping changes, and nearly half of middle-income shoppers, those earning between $80K and $99K, are worried that gifts will cost more this year. It’s not just what they’re buying; it’s how carefully they’re considering each purchase.
Forecasts are adjusting accordingly. Passport and eMarketer project non-store holiday retail sales, including ecommerce, to grow around 7% this year, a slowdown from the 9–10% range of recent years. Direct-to-consumer brands are expected to make up about 19% of that total. It’s still a meaningful share, but in a tighter market, relevance and visibility will matter more than ever.
Video Is Still Doing the Heavy Lifting
In this kind of landscape, performance doesn’t come from sheer volume. It comes from timing, message, and medium alignment, and video continues to check all three boxes.
As we noted in last month’s update, video is playing a larger full-funnel role than ever. That trend hasn’t slowed. During last year’s Cyber 5, ADM’s DTC clients saw video-led campaigns across YouTube and Demand Gen deliver standout results. Daily average conversions increased 130% year over year, impressions scaled more than sixfold, and efficiency improved too: CPMs fell 19% while conversion rate rose 6%.
Video works because it meets shoppers where they are, scrolling, browsing, and comparing across surfaces. Whether it’s a pre-roll ad, carousel placement, or streaming spot, video reinforces value without forcing the decision. It builds familiarity early so that when urgency peaks, your brand is the one that stands out.
Make November Count
Cyber 5 might not be the only checkpoint that matters, but it’s still the one that can shape the entire season. What brands learn in the lead-up, from which creatives resonate to how audiences are reacting, should guide what comes next. 2025 isn’t the year to run a recycled playbook. It’s the year to interpret what’s in front of you, make decisive calls, and double down on what’s actually working.
What to Watch Heading Into December
- Cyber 5 momentum will set the tone. Brands that use post-event data to reallocate spend quickly will be better positioned to ride demand through mid-December rather than relying solely on Black Friday peaks.
- Value messaging will keep outperforming deep discounts. Price remains a motivator, but clarity and credibility are proving just as important. Shoppers are rewarding brands that make smart, transparent offers instead of blanket markdowns.
- Cross-channel consistency will close the loop. As shoppers move between devices and stores, continuity in creative and offer presentation will decide whether consideration turns into conversion.
The Final Takeaway
Q4 won’t reward the most rigid plans; it will reward the most responsive ones. The brands that stay tuned to performance signals, pivot with purpose, and meet shoppers in stride, not in hindsight, will carry momentum through Cyber Week and into the new year.
