The last quarter of the year is often unpredictable, but Q4 2025 is shaping up to be wild even by those standards. That’s due to macroeconomic trends and technological changes simultaneously reshaping consumer behavior.
With inflation still high and tariffs quietly raising prices across product categories, shoppers are destined to react by spending smarter, though not necessarily more. To assist in that process, they’re increasingly turning to the newest tech tools at their disposal in hopes of making informed decisions.
Together, these forces indicate a holiday season defined by deliberation, and advertisers will need to position every aspect of their programs in order to capitalize. Here’s what ADM is looking out for as the all-important Q4 crunch approaches.
A New Baseline for Consumer Sentiment
August’s University of Michigan index, which tracks consumer sentiment, dropped to 58.6—down nearly 14% from 2024. That dip indicates worry, which typically precedes a behavioral shift. It means consumers are conducting more price comparisons, delaying checkouts, and requiring a higher bar to justify new purchases.
In uncertain markets, shoppers don’t stop spending, but they change how they shop. They expect clearer value propositions and lean harder on resources that help them feel like they’re making smart financial decisions. The result is often a more deliberate journey, where every stage of the buying process has to justify itself.
This emphasis on research and deliberation coincides with another interesting tech factor that will influence Q4 strategies and performance—the rise of AI-powered shopping.
Conservative Shopping Habits Meet AI
Adobe’s latest data confirms what many of us in digital marketing have already felt on the ground: consumers are leveraging AI to aid purchase decisions, with traffic from AI-assisted sources up 4,700% YoY as of July. Nearly 40% of U.S. shoppers now say they have used AI tools for product discovery, deal hunting, or comparison shopping. It’s no longer a fringe behavior.
A shopper who once might have browsed across several retailers manually is now more likely to turn to a tool like ChatGPT in order to find and compare products based on their specific needs or wants. While placing your brand in LLM results isn’t yet an exact science—many of the best practices resemble traditional SEO—there are some things to emphasize to raise the likelihood a chatbot will surface you for the right customers:
- Lead with a TL;DR: Price, key specs, who the product is for, and its top benefits should be clearly stated on the product page
- Display reviews and Q&As prominently.
- Answer comparisons on-site. If you’re frequently competing against another product or type of product, create comparison pages and fit/size/compatibility guides—and link them bi-directionally with product pages.
- Show proof and policies. Clearly state shipping/returns/warranty information.
- Stay consistent and current. Names/specs/prices should be aligned across site/feeds/marketplaces, regular and sale prices should be clearly denoted.
The Channel-Less Journey is Held Together By Mobile
Meanwhile, the relationship between retail and eCommerce is continuing to blur. eMarketer’s July study on “Channel-less Commerce” shows 70%+ of U.S. shoppers already move fluidly between online and physical retail, with most using their phones to research while in-store. The takeaway? Search, social, store, and AI are no longer siloed—they’re converging into a single, fluid decision loop. Whether it starts with a Meta ad or a ChatGPT prompt, it often continues across devices, into retail apps, and even through the doors of physical stores.
In another recent blog, we also pondered the “is the funnel dying?” quandary—and more-or-less landed on “no, but it is getting flatter.” At ADM, we’ve seen that mobile is the thread holding that loop together.
As highlighted in our Prime Day 2025 analysis, seamless mobile experiences—especially at checkout—turned deal-seeking browsers into buyers. Our clients have seen measurable lift when mobile-first creative and frictionless UX stay consistent across channels. That continuity—of message, pricing, and experience—is what drives performance across the funnel.
But mobile alone doesn’t define intent. Someone scrolling Instagram may be in a discovery mindset; someone searching “best noise-canceling headphones under $200” on Google is signaling purchase intent. The lesson from both our funnel analysis and client campaigns is the same: treat channels as complementary, not interchangeable—and measure how they fuel each other across the full journey.
What to Watch Heading Into Q4
- AI will shape research behavior. Expect more front-loaded browsing, fueled by AI-curated recommendations. Visibility in search and shopping placements will matter more than ever, and so will the clarity of your product data. Brands should think beyond being “present” in AI-driven lists—they need to be positioned as the obvious choice once they’re surfaced.
- Mobile is the primary touchpoint—but not the only one. Most journeys now begin on mobile, where discovery, deal-hunting, and comparison take place. But as our funnel work makes clear, conversion often lands elsewhere: on desktop for higher-ticket items, or in-store when shoppers want physical validation. Plan for continuity rather than channel-by-channel wins—your campaigns should reassure shoppers they’re in the same journey no matter where they land.
- Value is the new currency. Tight budgets don’t always equal lost sales, but they will redefine what shoppers demand in return. Nearly one in four consumers plans to use buy-now-pay-later options this holiday season, especially Gen Z and Millennials. But value isn’t just about flexible payments. Set appropriate expectations, highlight longevity, exclusivity, or utility in your creative. Our Prime Day lessons showed that value-forward messaging consistently outperformed shallow discounting.
- Don’t plan in silos. Assume shoppers are comparing you across apps, feeds, and physical shelves simultaneously. As we argued in our funnel blog, the future isn’t about assigning budget “by stage” but about understanding cross-channel value. Paid social might spark awareness, search might capture intent, and in-store might close—but each piece should be measured as part of the same loop.
- Assume speed. AI-assisted research is collapsing timelines. A shopper who looks like they’re “just browsing” may be minutes from conversion. That means your retargeting, landing pages, and cart flows all have to be ready to seal the deal.
The Bottom Line
The Q4 shift is already in motion. Between cautious spending, AI-led discovery, and channel-blending consumer paths, the advantage belongs to brands that adapt early.
The funnel isn’t dead, but it’s fluid. Campaigns built for agility—whether in creative refresh cycles, cross-channel coordination, or AI-driven visibility—will outpace static, siloed strategies. Plan with precision, optimize with agility, and meet consumers where decisions actually happen. Do that, and a cautious holiday season might be more than just survivable.
